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| 西藏阿里地区气候变化及其对季节性冻土的影响 |
| Effects of Climate Change on Seasonal Frozen Soil in Ngari Region of Tibet |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 气候变化 季节性冻土 突变 西藏阿里 |
| 英文关键词:Climate change Seasonal frozen soil Mutations Ngari prefecture of Tibet |
| 基金项目:第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目：西风—季风协同作用及其环境效应(2019QZKK0106)；中国气象科学研究院青藏高原与极地气象科学研究所开放课题（ITPP2021K03）；西藏自治区科技重点研发计划项目（XZ202001ZY0023N）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于西藏阿里地区国家气象站的观测资料，利用气候趋势率、累积距平和信噪比分析了西藏阿里地区气候变化、多年冻土变化以及气候因子对多年冻土的影响。结果表明：西藏阿里地区1974年—2023年气温呈显著升高，1998年突变之后，年气温平均升高\{1.1 ℃\}。降水量呈显著减少，1988年突变发生后年降水量平均减少41.5 mm。1993年—2023年阿里地区年日照时数线性减少229.2 h；地面温度线性升高2.5 ℃。1993年—2023年阿里地区冻土初日线性后推了6 d,冻土融化日期线性提前了14.5 d,冻土期线性减少了23.7 d,冻土最大深度线性变浅28.0 cm,气温和地面温度是影响冻土的主要要素。10月平均气温每升高1.0 ℃，冻土初日向后推迟2.4 d；3月平均气温每升高1.0 ℃，冻土融化日期提前4.4 d；11月—翌年3月平均气温每升高1.0 ℃，冻土期缩短3.4 d；11月—翌年2月平均气温每升高1.0 ℃，冻土最大深度变浅10.0 cm。气温、地温的显著升高直接影响冻土初日、冻土融化日期、冻土期和冻土最大深度，降水量和日照时数对冻土影响不显著。本研究阐明了西藏阿里地区季节性冻土最大深度变浅、冻结期变短等与气候变化有关的现象。研究结果为阿里地区应对气候变化和指导工程建设提供参考。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Seasonal frozen soil is highly sensitive to climate change. To elucidate the effect of climate change on seasonal frozen soil in the Ngari Plateau of Tibet, this study aimed to provide valuable insights for local engineering design, construction, and operations. Based on observational data from national meteorological stations in the Ngari region, we analyzed climate trends, cumulative anomalies, and the climate signal strength to assess climate change, permafrost dynamics, and the effects of climatic factors on frozen soil. The analysis revealed a significant temperature increase in the Ngari region between 1974 and 2023, with an average annual rise of 1.1°C, following a notable shift in 1998. Annual precipitation decreased by 41.5 mm after a marked change in 1988. From 1993 to 2023, annual sunshine duration declined by 229.2 hours. The annual ground temperature exhibited a linear increase of 2.5 °C. Over the same period, the initial soil freezing date was delayed by 6 days, while the thawing date advanced by 14.5 days. Consequently, the duration of the frozen soil period decreased linearly by 23.7 days, and the maximum frozen depth decreased by 28.0 cm. Air and ground temperatures were identified as the primary influencing factors. Specifically, a 1.0 °C increase in the average October temperature delayed the initial freezing date by 2.4 days, while a 1.0 °C rise in the average March temperature advanced the thawing date by 4.4 days. Moreover, a 1.0 °C increase in the average temperature from November to March shortened the frozen period by 3.4 days, and a similar rise from November to February of the following year reduced the maximum frozen depth by 10.0 cm. In conclusion, the significant rise in air and ground temperatures directly affects the onset and end of soil freezing, the duration of the frozen period, and the maximum depth of seasonal frozen soil, whereas precipitation and sunshine duration have limited impact. This study highlights the effects of climate change in the Ngari region, particularly the decreasing frozen depth and shortened frozen duration, and provides a scientific basis for climate adaptation and infrastructure planning. |
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