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| 基于CARAH气象评估模型的襄阳地区小麦产量及病虫害风险评价 |
| Wheat Yield and Pest Risk Assessment in Xiangyang Area Based on CARAH Meteorological Assessment Model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: CARAH模型 气象评估 小麦 产量 病虫害 风险评估 |
| 英文关键词:CARAH model Meteorological assessment Wheat Yield Pests and diseases Risk assessment |
| 基金项目:中国气象局公共气象服务中心2024年创新基金项目“基于卷积自编码器的小风形势特征提取和相似检索”（M2024011）。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 研究借助CARAH气象评估模型,对襄阳地区小麦产量及病虫害风险进行评价，旨在实现以CARAH气象评估模型为依据的小麦病虫风险预测与防治，达到提高小麦产量的目的。于湖北省襄阳市老河口市4个不同小麦种植区张集镇、竹林桥镇、薛集镇、孟楼镇,应用CARAH预警模型监测预警小麦赤霉病的发生情况，并对小麦产量进行预估。结果表明：竹林桥镇、薛集镇、张集镇、孟楼镇4个监测点的预测中心病株出现时间和田间调查出现情况基本吻合；竹林桥镇病害最重，重度及以上侵染占比71.43%，CARAH模型预测发生程度与田间调查发生程度以偏重发生为主；4个监测点分别采用不同菌剂进行病虫害预防，以多粘类芽孢杆菌的防治效果更为显著。张集镇和孟楼镇每穗粒数、千粒重、有效穗数、产量较竹林桥镇和薛集镇显著提升（P＜0.05）。表明CARAH气象评估模型预测中心病株出现时间和田间调查出现时间基本一致，实现对侵染程度的准确预测，结合预测结果选择最佳生物药剂进行病虫害防治，最终达到提质增效的目标。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To enhance wheat yield and improve the prediction and assessment of pest risks and production levels, the CARAH meteorological assessment model was used in the Xiangyang area. This study utilized the CARAH model to effectively control wheat diseases and pests, thereby improving yield. The model was applied in four wheat-growing regions—Zhangji Town, Zhulinqiao Town, Xueji Town, and Menglou Town—within Laohekou City, Xiangyang, Hubei Province, to monitor FHB occurrence and forecast wheat yield. The findings revealed that the predicted timing of centrally infected plants in the four towns was largely consistent with field survey results. Zhulinqiao Town exhibited the highest severity of infection, with heavy cases accounting for 71.43%. Both the CARAH model predictions and field survey results indicated predominantly high infection levels. Different microbial agents were used at the four monitoring sites for disease and pest control, among which Bacillus polymyxa was the most effective. The number of grains per spike, thousand-grain weight, number of effective spikes, and yield in Zhangji Town and Menglou Town were significantly higher than those in Zhulinqiao Town and Xueji Town (P< 0.05). These results demonstrate that the CARAH model accurately predicts the timing of centrally infected plants and the severity of infection. Based on these predictions, selecting optimal biocontrol agents enables effective pest and disease control, ultimately improving wheat quality and yield. |
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